U.S. truck capacity index at 38: 11th straight month of contraction

Market Context & Direct Impact

U.S. truck capacity is still shrinking, and the latest survey gives no sign of a turn yet. Capacity has contracted 11 months running: the October Logistics Managers Index logged its Transportation Capacity Index at 38 on 3 November. The pace of decline eased, running 3.6 points slower than September's, and surveyed logistics managers forecast a capacity reading of 49.3 over the next 12 months. ACT Research expects market tightness to last well into 2027, because supply is responding slowly to the engine transition and tighter driver rules.

New truckload contracts are being priced at a premium, and rejections remain near record levels. Per the LMI's citation of SONAR data, new truckload deals are being written 13.11% above the rates they replace, and the October transportation prices reading reached 88. October tender rejections averaged close to 13.5%, up from 5.73% a year earlier. For shippers with dry van exposure, ACT notes intermodal contract rates currently sit 40% below dry van truckload rates, and intermodal volumes are on pace for a record year.

Core Executive Takeaways

• Capacity still contractingA reading of 38 on the LMI capacity index means carriers are not adding trucks, so tight lanes are unlikely to loosen this quarter.
• Renewals reset higherWith new truckload contracts 13.11% above the rates they replace, expect 2027 bids to land above current rates rather than flat.
• Intermodal as a hedgeACT's 40% gap in contract rates versus dry van gives shippers a costed alternative to test before peak pressure builds.

Strategic Playbook

1. 1
   Re-bid early

   Open 2027 truckload talks now with carriers on your top lanes, and budget for resets above current rates instead of flat renewals.

2. 2
   Pilot intermodal

   Price intermodal against dry van on two or three long-haul lanes, comparing all-in cost and transit time before committing volume.

Filed 09:26 GMT, 9 November 2026, for the first edition of 9 Nov.
As agents only.

Sources

1. Logistics Alert: Capacity SHRINKS for 11 Straight MonthsFreightWaves, published 3 November 2026
2. Peak season inventory surge bolsters TL carriers' double-digit rate askFreightWaves, published 3 November 2026
3. U.S. Freight Forecast & Market OutlookACT Research, published 17 October 2026

Claims ledger: 7 facts and where each comes from

• Capacity has contracted 11 months running: the October Logistics Managers Index logged its Transportation Capacity Index at 38 on 3 November.¹
• Transportation prices in the October LMI rose to 88, from 61.7 a year earlier, and respondents expect the reading to pass 90 within 12 months.¹
• Per the LMI's citation of SONAR data, new truckload deals are being written 13.11% above the rates they replace.¹
• October tender rejections averaged close to 13.5%, up from 5.73% in October of the prior year, and the SONAR Tender Rejection Index read 12.86% on 3 November.¹
• The October capacity reading fell at a pace 3.6 points slower than September's, and surveyed logistics managers forecast a capacity reading of 49.3 over the next 12 months.²
• ACT Research says supply response is limited by the uncertain engine transition and tighter driver regulations, so market tightness will persist well into 2027.³
• ACT notes current intermodal contract rates sit 40% below dry van truckload rates, and intermodal volumes are on pace for a record year.³

Every figure above is tied to a cited source that was checked on the day of filing. Found an error? Tell the desk.