Suez return caps November rate hikes; Drewry index at $4,305 per 40ft

Market Context & Direct Impact

Spot ocean rates are slipping while carriers push November increases. Drewry's World Container Index, the benchmark procurement teams widely reference, fell 2% to US$4,305 per 40ft container in the week to 12 November, with Transpacific and Asia–Europe/Mediterranean routes both lower. The index had already eased from US$4,585 on 22 October to US$4,389 on 5 November. Against that softer spot trend, MSC filed US$4,500 per 40ft for North Europe and US$5,000 for the Western Mediterranean and Adriatic, and CMA CGM announced US$4,900 for the Western Mediterranean. Sogese, the Italian logistics company, doubts carriers will secure more than part of those increases as effective capacity grows. For shippers, the gap between filed General Rate Increases and what the market actually pays is where contract and spot negotiations will be decided.

Red Sea routing is the capacity driver to watch. Drewry counted 53 containerships through the Suez Canal in the week ended 1 November, up 130% on the same week of 2025, and found 60% of Asia–Europe capacity back on the Suez route. Xeneta reports that carriers committed 467,297 TEU of weekly capacity to the Red Sea in October, half the pre-crisis level of August 2023 but roughly double the offered capacity at the end of August 2026. Xeneta's Ocean Outlook 2027 forecasts global average spot rates to fall 30% in 2027, measured as a full-year average against a Q3 2026 baseline. Chief Analyst Peter Sand warned that a full return to Suez could send rates plummeting, while a security setback could push carriers back onto Cape of Good Hope diversions. Drewry expects rates to rise slightly in the coming weeks, so the direction is contested.

Core Executive Takeaways

• Filed rates outrun spotCarriers' announced North Europe level of US$4,500 per 40ft sits above Drewry's composite reading, so expect partial recovery only.
• Suez capacity returningWith 60% of Asia–Europe capacity back on the Suez route, the supply overhang now shapes pricing more than the Cape detour did.
• 2027 remains a forecastXeneta's 30% spot decline is a full-year 2027 projection, and the firm itself warns a new shock could reverse it.

Strategic Playbook

1. 1
   Index your November tender

   Benchmark November Asia–Europe and Middle East-bound FAK offers against the weekly Drewry index and pause any increase that a Linerlytica-style discount undercuts before the 15 November FAK attempt.

2. 2
   Split 2027 volume

   Keep part of 2027 volume on short-term spot and add a routing re-opener to any long-term contract, so a Red Sea reversal does not lock in Cape-diversion costs.

Filed 09:25 GMT, 14 November 2026, for the first edition of 14 Nov.
As agents only.

Sources

1. World Container Index assessed by Drewry, 12 NovDrewry, published 12 November 2026
2. Suez return could limit November freight rate increases, Sogese warnsContainer News, published 10 November 2026
3. Red Sea Diversion Tracker - 03 NovDrewry, published 3 November 2026
4. Xeneta Summit: Analysts forecast ocean freight spot rates to fall 30% in 2027 as Red Sea return sees capacity flooding backXeneta, published 5 November 2026
5. Calmer waters for container spot rates, but 'fragile' Middle East a threatThe Loadstar, published 6 November 2026

Claims ledger: 12 facts and where each comes from

• Drewry's World Container Index decreased 2% to US$4,305 per 40ft container in the week assessed on Thursday, 12 November 2026, with declines on the Transpacific and Asia–Europe/Med routes.¹
• Drewry describes its World Container Index as the benchmark widely referenced by procurement teams.¹
• Average container freight rates stood at US$4,389 per 40-foot container on 5 November, down from US$4,585 on 22 October, according to Drewry's World Container Index as cited by Sogese.²
• MSC filed rates of US$4,500 for North Europe and US$5,000 for the Western Mediterranean and Adriatic, while CMA CGM announced US$4,900 for the Western Mediterranean.²
• Sogese believes carriers may secure only part of these increases as effective capacity expands.²
• Drewry's Red Sea Diversion Tracker records 53 containerships transiting the Suez Canal in the week ended 1 November, up 130% compared with the same week of 2025.³
• With 60% of Asia-Europe capacity now using the Suez route again, Drewry says the shift reverses nearly three years of diversions.³
• In October 2026, carriers committed 467,297 TEU of weekly capacity to the Red Sea, which is 50% of the pre-crisis level of August 2023 and roughly double the offered capacity at the end of August 2026.⁴
• Xeneta forecasts global ocean container spot rates to fall 30% in 2027, and both its rate forecasts are full-year 2027 averages against a Q3 2026 baseline.⁴
• Sand said that if there is a full return, freight rates could plummet, and a security deterioration could force carriers back to Cape of Good Hope diversions.⁴
• Carriers have been offering discounted rates ranging from $2,700 to $3,400 per 40ft on Asia-North Europe shipments, according to Linerlytica as reported by The Loadstar.⁵
• A further attempt at higher FAK levels is scheduled for 15 November, and European forwarders told The Loadstar that modest demand and ample capacity are likely to weigh against them.⁵

Every figure above is tied to a cited source that was checked on the day of filing. Found an error? Tell the desk.