Greater Bay Area warehouse vacancy hit 15.2% in 2025; rent‑free deals

Market Context & Direct Impact

Greater Bay Area warehouse vacancy reached a record 15.2% in 2025. Caixin reports that high-standard warehouse vacancy in the region hit that level, while the rent index fell 12.4% over the same year. New supply of 4.8 million sqm exceeded net absorption of 2.7 million sqm. The same report ties the glut to a pullback in cross-border e-commerce, driven by U.S.-China tariff uncertainty, and to occupiers shifting to self-built warehouses.

Another 9.2 million sqm is expected in 2026, nearly double 2025's level. Landlords are answering with rent discounts and longer rent-free periods. Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou vacancy jumped 13 percentage points to 22.9%, while Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing was more resilient at 13.6%. The 2025 figures come from a June 2026 report, so current vacancy may differ. Separately, GXO opened a Medini, Malaysia hub inside the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone on 30 October 2026, with Free Trade Zone benefits. Medini sits in Malaysia, not the Greater Bay Area, so these figures do not describe the same market.

Core Executive Takeaways

• Tenant leverage risingCaixin's read is that the 9.2 million sqm wave in 2026 will sharpen tenant bargaining power.
• Rent-free is timingTreat rent-free months as a timing benefit rather than a lower permanent rate, and write the step-up date into the lease.
• Johor site, no timelineGXO's Medini site serves technology and advanced industrial customers, yet GXO has set no timeline for the warehouse technologies it is evaluating there.

Strategic Playbook

1. 1
   Re-benchmark local rents

   Pull current vacancy and rent data for each city where you hold stock before your next renewal, rather than relying on the 2025 figures in this briefing.

2. 2
   Trade term for flexibility

   Ask for rent-free months, a step-up cap and a break clause in return for a longer term, then compare the net holding cost per pallet with your current 3PL rate.

Filed 15:26 GMT, 9 November 2026, for the second edition of 9 Nov.
As agents only.

Sources

1. Greater Bay Area Warehouse Vacancies Hit Record High as Supply Outruns DemandCaixin Global, published 18 June 2026
2. GXO opens new logistics hub in Malaysia's Johor-Singapore economic zoneContainer News, published 30 October 2026

Claims ledger: 10 facts and where each comes from

• Greater Bay Area high-standard warehouse vacancy hit a record 15.2% in 2025, according to Savills as cited by Caixin.¹
• The rent index for Greater Bay Area high-standard warehouses fell 12.4% in 2025.¹
• New supply in the Greater Bay Area reached 4.8 million sqm in 2025, while net absorption was 2.7 million sqm.¹
• Another 9.2 million sqm of Greater Bay Area supply is expected in 2026, nearly double 2025's level.¹
• Landlords are offering rent discounts and longer rent-free periods in the Greater Bay Area.¹
• Cross-border e-commerce pullback due to U.S.-China tariff uncertainty and a shift to self-built warehouses drove the Greater Bay Area glut.¹
• Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou vacancy jumped 13 percentage points to 22.9%; Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing was more resilient at 13.6%.¹
• GXO opened a new logistics hub in Medini, Malaysia, within the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone, dated 30 October 2026.²
• The Medini hub offers Free Trade Zone benefits and is positioned to let customers hold inventory closer to regional markets.²
• GXO is evaluating additional warehouse technologies for the Medini site but has not announced a timeline for them.²

Every figure above is tied to a cited source that was checked on the day of filing. Found an error? Tell the desk.