Suez container capacity hits 753,000 TEU a week, half of pre‑crisis

Market Context & Direct Impact

Container ships are returning to Suez faster than the rate market is softening. Weekly container ship capacity through the canal averaged 753,000 TEU across the first two weeks of October 2026, according to BIMCO citing Clarksons Research, against 1.46 million TEU in the same weeks of 2023. Suez now carries 36% of the container capacity that uses either Suez or the Cape of Good Hope, up from an average of 8% between 2024 and mid-2026, but still below the 80% share seen before the Red Sea attacks. Linerlytica says downward pressure on spot rates persists as port congestion eases and capacity freed from long Cape voyages comes back. The Suez route is not yet cutting rates across the board, though. Freightos reports that Asia–Europe spot rates are trending up after months of declines, and transpacific rates remain stable but highly elevated at $8,126/FEU to the U.S. West Coast and $9,700/FEU to the East Coast.

Carriers are still cutting sailings, and Drewry's arithmetic suggests the Suez saving is modest. Xeneta data shows 58,200 TEU blanked on Far East to U.S. West Coast sailings in one week, and 35,500 TEU to the U.S. East Coast. Xeneta analyst Emily Stausbøll reads that as carriers protecting current rate levels rather than expecting growth. Drewry's World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft on 15 October, lifted mainly by Asia–Europe after 13 straight weekly declines. Drewry expects that composite to stay stable next week, because carriers' $4,500–4,800 per 40ft Asia–Europe general rate increases face uncertain uptake. Drewry also estimates the voyage saving from returning to Suez at about $43 per slot, roughly $1 million per round trip, before war-risk insurance premiums. For Gulf and African shippers, the Red Sea return changes routing and transit times on Asia–Europe and India–Mediterranean legs, so spot quotes may move before contract resets reflect the change.

Core Executive Takeaways

• Spot may holdDrewry expects Asia–Europe rates to remain stable next week, while carriers test $4,500–4,800 per 40ft increases that may not stick.
• 2027 overcapacity riskFreightos says the Red Sea return raises carriers' overcapacity risk in 2027, provided geopolitics allow the return to finish.
• Price the war riskDrewry's $43-per-slot saving excludes war-risk insurance, so compare full landed cost, not the voyage saving alone.

Strategic Playbook

1. 1
   Re-benchmark Asia–Europe spot

   Index Asia–Europe spot against Drewry's weekly World Container Index, currently $4,485 per 40ft, and accept a carrier's general rate increase only once it shows up in that index.

2. 2
   Shorten 2027 terms

   Ask carriers for shorter validity periods or rate-reset clauses on 2027 Asia–Europe and transpacific contracts, since full Suez return is expected by Q1 2027.

Filed 10:06 GMT, 21 October 2026, for the first edition of 21 Oct.
As agents only.

Sources

1. Red Sea container traffic set for full return in Q1 – October 20, 2026 UpdateFreightos, published 20 October 2026
2. Suez Canal container ship transits exceed half of pre-crisis levelsContainer News, published 15 October 2026
3. Drewry - Service Expertise - World Container Index - 15 OctDrewry, published 15 October 2026
4. XENETA WEEKLY OCEAN CONTAINER SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - 16.10.26Xeneta, published 16 October 2026
5. Full Suez return for container carriers expected by Q1 2027Seatrade Maritime, published 14 October 2026
6. Suez Canal Highlights Continued Return of ContainershipsThe Maritime Executive, published 13 October 2026

Claims ledger: 14 facts and where each comes from

• BIMCO, citing Clarksons Research, reports an average of 753,000 TEU of container ship capacity passing through the Suez Canal each week in the first two weeks of October 2026, versus 1.46 million TEU in the same period of 2023.²
• BIMCO says 36% of container ship capacity on either the Suez or Cape of Good Hope routes used the canal in the first two weeks of October, against an average of 8% from 2024 to mid-2026 and 80% before the Red Sea attacks.²
• Linerlytica reports downward pressure on spot rates remains as congestion eases and capacity is released from longer Cape of Good Hope voyages.⁵
• Freightos says Asia–Europe spot rates are recently trending up after months of declines, despite Red Sea-driven effective capacity increases.¹
• Freightos reports transpacific ocean rates were stable but highly elevated last week at $8,126/FEU to the U.S. West Coast, and $9,700/FEU to the East Coast, up 1%.¹
• Freightos says transatlantic spot rates rose about $200 to $2,850/FEU since the end of September, and are 25% above a year earlier, possibly reflecting bunker costs.¹
• Drewry's World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on 15 October 2026, mainly due to Asia–Europe.³
• Drewry says Asia–Europe rates rose after 13 consecutive weeks of decline.³
• Drewry reports carriers are attempting to push rates through FAKs of $4,500–4,800 per 40ft on Asia–Europe effective 19 October, with successful implementation uncertain, and expects rates to remain stable next week.³
• Xeneta data shows 58,200 TEU blanked on the Far East to U.S. West Coast trade in one week, and 35,500 TEU from Far East to U.S. East Coast.⁴
• Xeneta analyst Emily Stausbøll says carriers removing capacity while U.S. spot rates remain far above pre-Hormuz crisis levels suggests carriers are protecting current rate levels rather than expecting further growth.⁴
• Freightos estimates container transits through the Red Sea will fully recover during Q1 of the coming year, and says the return increases overcapacity risk for carriers in 2027 if geopolitics allow it.¹
• Seatrade Maritime reports full Suez return for container carriers is expected by Q1 2027.⁵
• Drewry says the financial benefit of returning to the Suez route could be just $43 per slot, about $1 million per round trip, and this does not include war-risk insurance premiums.⁶

Every figure above is tied to a cited source that was checked on the day of filing. Found an error? Tell the desk.