Truckload rejections near 14% as for‑hire tractors drop about 51,000

Market Context & Direct Impact

FreightWaves pins truckload tightness on supply, not demand. Its Oct. 7 SONAR analysis says the market is tight "because trucks are leaving, not because freight is surging." The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index, the rate at which carriers reject shippers' electronic load tenders, held near 14%. That is about three times the 4% to 6% range of 2023 through 2025. Over the three years ending October 2026, FreightWaves puts the rejection index up 268% and its truckload volume index up 9%; at their early-summer 2026 peak, rejections were up more than 350%. FreightWaves says total for-hire tractors fell about 51,000 in August alone. SONAR data show tractors in new for-hire fleets dropped to 19,520 that month; FreightWaves puts the mid-2022 peak at about 47,000.

DAT's load boards tightened as the quarter closed. DAT reports equipment posts fell 8% to 170,691 for Sept. 27–Oct. 3. The dry van load-to-truck ratio, posted loads per posted truck, reached 13.7, up from 7.67 a year ago. Reefer stood at 21.7 and flatbed at 44.1. DAT calls that pattern "the signature of a quarter-end push," which suggests part of the jump is calendar-driven.

Core Executive Takeaways

• Authority Counts MisleadNet authority additions topped 2,000 a week in late August and late September, a five-year high, yet FreightWaves calls the jump largely administrative and estimates new grants ran about 17% below the first quarter.
• Enforcement Sidelines DriversFreightWaves reports 202,345 CDL and permit holders in prohibited status in FMCSA's Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse as of Jan. 2, 2026, and says English-proficiency enforcement takes about 2,700 drivers out of service a month.
• Tight Into 2027FreightWaves expects the truckload market to stay tight through early 2027 and names parked trucks as the fastest relief, citing an ATRI finding that about 10% of carriers' trucks sat without a driver in 2025.

Strategic Playbook

1. 1
   Shore up the routing guide

   Rank lanes by tender-rejection exposure and offer incumbent carriers volume commitments, drop-trailer flexibility or faster payment in exchange for acceptance guarantees before peak-season freight builds.

2. 2
   Track trucks, not authorities

   Budget for elevated spot exposure into early 2027, and treat rising for-hire tractor counts and seated drivers, not new-authority totals, as the signal that capacity is returning.

Filed 04:45 GMT, 10 October 2026, for the first edition of 10 Oct.
As agents only.

Sources

1. Is Trucking Capacity Coming Back? Why New Capacity Isn't Entering the 2026 Freight MarketFreightWaves, published 7 October 2026
2. Trucking Capacity Crisis: Rejections Up 4x on Same VolumeFreightWaves, published 6 October 2026
3. DAT spot market data for Sept. 27–Oct. 3: Quarter-end freight push lifts van rateAmerican Journal of Transportation, published 5 October 2026
4. Dry Van Report: Quarter-end freight surge pushes spot rates higherDAT Freight & Analytics, published 6 October 2026
5. SONAR releases new tender data, Truckload Volume Index, and Truckload Rejection IndexFreightWaves, published 2 December 2025

Claims ledger: 13 facts and where each comes from

• FreightWaves, October 7, 2026 (Oct. 7), by Julie Van de Kamp of FreightWaves SONAR: 'the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index (STRI) held near 14%, about three times its 2023–2025 range'; 'Expect the truckload market to stay tight through early 2027, with STRI well above the 4% to 6% range of 2023 through 2025.'¹
• FreightWaves, October 7, 2026: 'Rejections are up 268% in three years. Volume is up 9%. The market is tight because trucks are leaving, not because freight is surging.'¹
• FreightWaves, December 2, 2025, introducing the indexes: the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index is 'the tender rejection rate for the STVI data described above'; the tender data are built 'using electronic requests from shippers seeking capacity from their providers'. FreightWaves, October 7, 2026: 'carriers are rejecting nearly four times as many loads on roughly the same volume'.⁵¹
• FreightWaves, October 6, 2026: 'Tender rejection rates have surged to roughly 14%', according to a Tuesday Sonar market update by Julie Van de Kamp; 'Van de Kamp said she expects the market to remain tight at least through early 2027, and potentially considerably longer, even without a demand spike.'²
• FreightWaves, October 7, 2026: 'Total for-hire tractors fell by about 51,000 in August alone.' The same article's FAQ dates it: 'total for-hire tractors fell about 51,000 in August 2026'. FreightWaves, October 6, 2026: 'Total for-hire tractors fell approximately 51,000 in August alone'.¹²
• FreightWaves, October 7, 2026: 'Tractors in new for-hire fleets fell to 19,520 in August 2026, down about 14% from the first-half average.' The count 'peaked in mid-2022 at about 47,000'. The article attributes the 19,520 figure to SONAR data in its text ('SONAR data shows') and lists SONAR among its sources for the tractor series.¹
• FreightWaves, October 7, 2026: 'Over the three years ending October 2026, the SONAR Truckload Volume Index (STVI) is up 9%, while STRI is up 268%.' 'At their early-summer 2026 peak, rejections were up more than 350%.'¹
• DAT spot market data for the week of Sept. 27–Oct. 3, as carried by AJOT on October 5, 2026: 'Equipment posts fell 8% to 170,691, with truck posts down for all three equipment types.' Load-to-truck ratios: dry van 13.7, reefer 21.7, flatbed 44.1.³
• Derived: DAT dry van load posts of 1,588,410 divided by dry van truck posts of 115,764 (DAT data for the week of Sept. 27–Oct. 3, as carried by AJOT) is about 13.72, matching the published dry van load-to-truck ratio; the ratio is posted loads per posted truck.³
• DAT Dry Van Report, October 6, 2026, on dry van market conditions last week: 'The load-to-truck ratio firmed to 13.72, up from 11.40 the week before last and from 7.67 a year ago.' 'Demand pulled forward to the calendar while committed capacity thinned, the signature of a quarter-end push.'⁴
• FreightWaves, October 7, 2026: 'Net authority additions topped 2,000 a week in late August and late September, the highest in five years.' 'The 2026 jump is also largely administrative.' 'estimated new authority grants ran about 17% below the first quarter.'¹
• FreightWaves, October 7, 2026: 'As of January 2, 2026, 202,345 CDL and permit holders were in prohibited status in FMCSA's Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse' (Jan. 2, 2026). 'English language proficiency enforcement now takes about 2,700 drivers out of service a month, according to SONAR data.'¹
• FreightWaves, October 7, 2026: 'The fastest source of relief is parked trucks: ATRI found about 10% of carriers' trucks sat without a driver in 2025.'¹

Every figure above was read from its source on the day of filing and re-checked against that source by a separate fact-check before publication. Found an error? Tell the desk.