Diesel falls to $6.199: surcharges set to ease, EIA sees $6+ October

Market Context & Direct Impact

Diesel is retreating from its September high. The EIA's national on-highway average fell 18.3 cents to $6.199 a gallon for the week of Oct. 5, the second straight weekly drop. That is about 33 cents below the $6.529 posted for the week of Sept. 21, which DAT's weekly report calls the highest weekly reading in records going back to 2007. The EIA average still sits $2.488 above a year ago. Supply Chain 24/7 attributes the run-up to renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.

Truckload fuel surcharges lag the pump. DAT's van spot rate averaged $3.13 a mile for Sept. 27–Oct. 3 with fuel, against a $2.25 linehaul rate. The gap of about 88 cents is the implied fuel surcharge, and DAT calculated its surcharge on the $6.529 reading. DAT says its next weekly report will reflect the $6.382 average for the week of Sept. 28. DAT's 35-day forecast holds van linehaul near $2.24 a mile, which suggests near-term relief will come through the surcharge line, not the base rate.

Core Executive Takeaways

• Regional Gaps PersistEIA data put California at $8.082 and the Lower Atlantic at $5.699, while New England slipped just 3.4 cents to $6.476.
• East Coast Supply TightThe EIA reports East Coast distillate inventories ran 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September and forecasts a 20% to 30% deficit through the upcoming winter.
• Forecast Stays ElevatedThe EIA's Oct. 6 outlook forecasts retail distillate prices above $6 a gallon in October, a gradual decline after that, and retail diesel averaging about $4.50 a gallon in 2027.

Strategic Playbook

1. 1
   Audit the index week

   Match each carrier's fuel surcharge to the EIA week its contract names, and confirm the Oct. 5 average reaches invoices on the agreed lag, with no Sept. 21 pricing left in the tables.

2. 2
   Budget for a slow decline

   Hold October fuel accruals at diesel above $6, per the EIA forecast, and keep fuel on an indexed surcharge schedule in upcoming bids so the decline the EIA expects flows through to cost instead of staying locked inside linehaul.

Filed 04:35 GMT, 10 October 2026, for the first edition of 9 Oct.
As agents only.

Sources

1. Gasoline and Diesel Fuel UpdateU.S. Energy Information Administration, published 6 October 2026
2. National diesel average falls to $6.199 per gallon, for the week of October 5, reports EIASupply Chain 24/7, published 6 October 2026
3. DAT spot market data for Sept. 27–Oct. 3: Quarter-end freight push lifts van rateAmerican Journal of Transportation, published 5 October 2026
4. Dry Van Report: Quarter-end freight surge pushes spot rates higherDAT Freight & Analytics, published 6 October 2026
5. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Petroleum ProductsU.S. Energy Information Administration, published 6 October 2026
6. Short-Term Energy OutlookU.S. Energy Information Administration, published 6 October 2026

Claims ledger: 13 facts and where each comes from

• EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, diesel fuel release date October 6, 2026: U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price (dollars per gallon, prices include all taxes) was 6.529 on 09/21/26 (Sept. 21), 6.382 on 09/28/26 (Sept. 28) and 6.199 on 10/05/26 (Oct. 5); change from week ago -0.183; change from year ago 2.488.¹
• Supply Chain 24/7, October 6, 2026: 'The national average price per gallon, for the week of October 5, at $6.199, dropped 18.3 cents'; the average 'dropped for the second consecutive week'; 'On an annual basis, the national average price per gallon of diesel is up $2.488'.²
• Derived: the EIA U.S. on-highway diesel average of $6.529 (Sept. 21) minus the EIA average of $6.199 (Oct. 5) is $0.330, a decline of about 33 cents over two weeks.¹
• Supply Chain 24/7: 'Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran, along with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, has disrupted global fuel supplies and pushed prices higher.'²
• DAT spot market data for the week of Sept. 27–Oct. 3, as carried by AJOT: under the heading '7-day average broker-to-carrier spot rates (linehaul + fuel surcharge):' the van line reads 'Van: $3.13 per mile, up 11 cents'; the dry van section lists 'Linehaul rate: $2.25 per mile'.³
• DAT, as carried by AJOT: 'The EIA's national average on-highway diesel price used in this report's fuel surcharge calculation was $6.529 a gallon (week ending Sept. 21), up 24.4 cents (4%) from $6.285 the week before and the highest weekly reading in its records going back to 2007.'³
• Derived: DAT's 7-day average van spot rate of $3.13 per mile (linehaul + fuel surcharge) minus DAT's dry van linehaul rate of $2.25 per mile is $0.88 per mile, an implied fuel surcharge of about 88 cents a mile.³
• DAT, as carried by AJOT: 'The 35-day DAT iQ RateCast forecast has van linehaul holding near $2.24 a mile in early November'. DAT Dry Van Report, October 6, 2026: 'Dry van spot linehaul rates paid to carriers averaged $2.25 per mile last week, minus fuel' and 'The 35-day DAT Rate Forecast puts dry van spot linehaul near $2.24 per mile'.³⁴
• DAT, as carried by AJOT: 'Diesel has eased since. The EIA reported $6.382 a gallon for the week ending Sept. 28, down 14.7 cents and the first weekly decline in four weeks. The fuel surcharge will reflect that price in next week's On the Spot report.'³
• EIA on-highway diesel prices for 10/05/26 (Oct. 5), dollars per gallon: California 8.082; Lower Atlantic (PADD1C) 5.699; New England (PADD1A) 6.476, change from week ago -0.034, which is a decline of 3.4 cents.¹
• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, release date October 6, 2026: 'Distillate inventories on the U.S. East Coast (PADD 1) were 32% below their five-year (2021–2025) seasonal average in September'; 'We forecast East Coast distillate inventories to remain between 20% and 30% below the five-year average through the upcoming winter.'⁵
• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, release date October 6, 2026 (Oct. 6): 'We forecast retail distillate prices will remain above $6/gal in October and then come down gradually with crude oil prices and a slight recovery in inventories, which we expect will help lower crack spreads.'⁵
• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, release date October 6, 2026: 'We expect retail diesel prices to average about $4.50/gal next year and for gasoline prices to average just under $3.60/gal.' The outlook's Petroleum Products table lists 'Retail diesel fuel price (dollars per gallon)' at 5.19 for 2026 projected and 4.49 for 2027 projected.⁶⁵

Every figure above was read from its source on the day of filing and re-checked against that source by a separate fact-check before publication. Found an error? Tell the desk.