U.S. imports from Mexico hit $60.64B in August; USMCA entry decides 10% duty

Market Context & Direct Impact

Mexico was the top U.S. trading partner in August. Imports from Mexico reached $60.64 billion, FreightWaves reports from U.S. Census Bureau data, which the Census country table confirms. FreightWaves puts two-way trade at $94.29 billion for the month, up nearly 27% year over year, and at $682.82 billion through eight months of 2026. China ranked third at $257.43 billion year to date, down 12% from the same period of 2025.

The Section 301 duty turns on how a Mexican good is entered. A USTR notice (91 FR 47318) imposes additional forced-labor duties from July 24, 2026: 10 percent on products of Mexico, 12.5 percent on products of China, and 10 percent on India, Indonesia and Malaysia. CBP guidance (CSMS 69326983) exempts products of Mexico entered free of duty under the USMCA; Holland & Knight describes those as goods that comply with the rules of origin and properly claim the preference. Goods subject to Section 232 fall outside this duty but stay under sectoral tariffs the firm puts at 25 to 50 percent. Three items are open: a Court of International Trade panel heard challenges to the duty on September 30, Quartz reports; USTR's separate excess-capacity investigations name Mexico; and Mexico is still negotiating Section 232 reductions, per Mexico News Daily.

Core Executive Takeaways

• Compliance Is The GateThe Dallas Fed reports the share of U.S. imports from Mexico and Canada qualifying for duty-free USMCA treatment rose to about 80 percent by July 2025, from roughly 50 percent for goods from Mexico and below 40 percent for Canada, and flags certification and documentation costs.
• Reviews Turn AnnualUSTR states the United States did not agree at the July 1, 2026 joint review to extend the USMCA for a new 16-year term, so annual joint reviews follow and the agreement terminates on July 1, 2036 unless all three parties confirm an extension.
• China Cuts Remain ProposedThe Associated Press reports Washington and Beijing released reciprocal lists on September 28 of products worth about $30 billion each for tariff cuts that Al Jazeera describes as recommended, with 77 categories of Chinese goods covered and no effective date given.

Strategic Playbook

1. 1
   Qualify before relocating

   Test each Mexico-sourced SKU against USMCA rules of origin and model landed cost three ways: entered duty-free under USMCA, at the additional 10 percent on top of the ordinary duty if origin or the claim fails, and under Section 232 sectoral tariffs if covered. Then load the China side with the 12.5 percent forced-labor rate, the 2018 Section 301 tariffs that an October 7 USTR notice keeps in effect, where they apply, ocean lead time and safety stock.

2. 2
   Hedge the open items

   File comments with USTR by January 12, 2027, write tariff-change clauses into Mexican supply contracts, and keep a qualified China supplier for SKUs on the proposed tariff-cut lists while the court case and the U.S.-China talks remain unresolved.

Filed 04:35 GMT, 10 October 2026, for the second edition of 9 Oct.
As agents only.

Sources

1. Trade in Goods with MexicoU.S. Census Bureau
2. Mexico remains top US trading partner as August commerce hits $94.3BFreightWaves, published 7 October 2026
3. Notice of Actions in Section 301 Investigations of Acts, Policies, and Practices of Various Economies Related to the Failure of Each Economy To Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition on the Importation of Goods Produced With Forced Labor (91 FR 47318)Office of the United States Trade Representative, Federal Register, published 28 July 2026
4. From IEEPA to Section 301: USTR Reimplements Trump’s Global Tariff RegimeSteptoe LLP, published 24 July 2026
5. Request for Public Comments and Notice of Public Hearing Relating to the Operation of the Agreement Between the United States of America, the United Mexican States, and Canada (91 FR 63379)Office of the United States Trade Representative, Federal Register, published 5 October 2026
6. Continuation of Actions: China's Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation (91 FR 64212)Office of the United States Trade Representative, Federal Register, published 7 October 2026
7. How USMCA compliance cushioned the 2025 tariff shockFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas, published 4 August 2026
8. U.S. and China release product lists for tariff cuts after Trump-Xi meetingPBS News (Associated Press report), published 28 September 2026
9. CSMS # 69326983 - GUIDANCE: Section 301 Forced Labor Import DutiesU.S. Customs and Border Protection, published 23 July 2026
10. Mexico Retains Preferential Access Under USMCA Despite New U.S. Forced Labor TariffsHolland & Knight, published 27 July 2026
11. Trump's Section 301 forced-labor tariffs are being challenged in trade court againQuartz, published 30 September 2026
12. Initiation of Section 301 Investigations: Acts, Policies, and Practices of Certain Economies Relating to Structural Excess Capacity and Production in Manufacturing Sectors (91 FR 12886)Office of the United States Trade Representative, Federal Register, published 17 March 2026
13. Ebrard, in Milwaukee, strikes optimistic note on USMCA talks — 'closer every day'Mexico News Daily, published 2 October 2026
14. US, China list goods recommended for tariff cuts following Trump-Xi summitAl Jazeera, published 28 September 2026

Claims ledger: 15 facts and where each comes from

• Census Bureau table 'Trade in Goods with Mexico', in millions of U.S. dollars on a nominal basis, not seasonally adjusted: August 2026 exports 33,656.3, imports 60,637.4, balance -26,981.1; TOTAL 2026 (January through August) exports 263,473.1, imports 419,344.4. The August imports figure equals the $60.64 billion reported by FreightWaves.¹²
• FreightWaves, October 7, 2026: Mexico remained the United States' largest trading partner in August, as cross-border commerce surged nearly 27% year over year to $94.3 billion; two-way trade between the U.S. and Mexico totaled $94.29 billion during the month, according to U.S. Census Bureau data analyzed by WorldCity; imports from Mexico jumped 34.3% to $60.64 billion.²
• FreightWaves, October 7, 2026: Through the first eight months of 2026, U.S.-Mexico commerce reached $682.82 billion; Canada ranked second year to date at $503.82 billion, while China was third at $257.43 billion; U.S. trade with China declined 12% compared with the same period in 2025.²
• USTR notice of actions under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 (91 FR 47318, published July 28, 2026): in each of 60 investigations, certain of the acts, policies, and practices of the economy at issue are actionable; the Trade Representative determined to impose 10 percent tariffs on products of Mexico and 12.5 percent tariffs on products of China, except as provided in Annex I and Annex II, Part A; the same notice imposes 10 percent tariffs on products of India, Indonesia and Malaysia (also Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) and 12.5 percent on products of Vietnam and Thailand; the additional duties apply to products entered on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern time on July 24, 2026.³
• CBP CSMS # 69326983, sent July 23, 2026: under heading 9903.05.55, articles the product of Mexico will be assessed an additional ad valorem rate of duty of 10%; as provided in heading 9903.05.94, the additional duties imposed by heading 9903.05.55 shall not apply to any products of Mexico entered free of duty under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement; under heading 9903.05.31, articles the product of China will be assessed an additional ad valorem rate of duty of 12.5%.⁹
• Holland & Knight, July 27, 2026: goods that comply with the rules of origin and for which preferential treatment is properly claimed under the USMCA generally retain their zero-tariff rate. Steptoe LLP, July 24, 2026: 'As under the Section 122 framework, USMCA-compliant goods remain exempt from the Section 301 forced labor tariffs.'¹⁰⁴
• Holland & Knight, July 27, 2026: goods and parts of goods that are subject to tariffs under Section 232 (applicable, among others, to certain steel, aluminum, vehicle and auto parts products) were excluded from this Section 301 action; this does not mean they are free from duties; they continue to be subject to their sectoral regimes, with rates currently ranging from 25 percent to 50 percent, depending on the product, tariff classification and applicable measure. Steptoe LLP, July 24, 2026: products already subject to Section 232 tariffs will remain exempt from the new Section 301 forced labor tariffs.¹⁰⁴
• Quartz, September 30, 2026, under the headline 'Trump's Section 301 forced-labor tariffs are being challenged in trade court again': a three-judge panel at the U.S. Court of International Trade in Manhattan heard arguments Wednesday (September 30) from small businesses and a coalition of Democratic-led states challenging President Donald Trump's Section 301 tariffs on goods from dozens of trading partners. The article reports no ruling.¹¹
• USTR notice (91 FR 12886, published March 17, 2026): USTR initiated investigations under Section 301 on March 11, 2026 into structural excess capacity and production in manufacturing sectors in 16 economies, including China and Mexico ('Evidence of structural excess capacity and production exists for Mexico'). Associated Press, September 28, 2026: the U.S. is investigating China among 16 trading partners in its Section 301 probe on excess industrial capacity and could impose additional tariffs on China when the investigation concludes.¹²⁸
• Mexico News Daily, October 2, 2026: Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard's main priorities include 'negotiating the reduction of Section 232 tariffs'; Ebrard said 'We are getting closer on many issues, resolving problems, and we are making progress'; no agreement is reported.¹³
• Al Jazeera, September 28, 2026: the US and China released a list of goods recommended for reduced tariffs; China's Ministry of Commerce said the sides would hold discussions aiming to reach a consensus; the article states no date on which reductions take effect.¹⁴
• USTR notice (91 FR 64212, published October 7, 2026): the July 6, 2018 and August 23, 2018 Section 301 actions on China, as modified, did not terminate on July 6, 2026 and August 23, 2026 and will remain in effect, subject to possible further modifications.⁶
• Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, August 4, 2026: the share of U.S. imports qualifying for duty-free treatment under USMCA rose to record-high levels of about 80 percent by July 2025, from roughly 50 percent for goods from Mexico and below 40 percent for Canada; compliance with the USMCA comes with costs that include certification, documentation and rules-of-origin requirements.⁷
• USTR notice (91 FR 63379, published October 5, 2026): the Free Trade Commission convened on July 1, 2026 to conduct the first joint review of the USMCA; at that meeting the United States did not agree to extend the Agreement for a new 16-year term; the Commission will meet to conduct a joint review annually until each of the three Parties confirms its wish to extend the term or the term expires; the Agreement must terminate 16 years after the date of entry into force, i.e., July 1, 2036, unless each Party confirms it wishes to continue the Agreement for a new 16-year term; written comments and requests to appear at the hearing are due January 12, 2027, at 11:59 p.m. EST.⁵
• Associated Press, September 28, 2026: the United States and China on Monday (September 28) released reciprocal lists of nonsensitive products worth about $30 billion each that will see tariff cuts; for Chinese goods exported to the U.S., 77 categories were covered, including fireworks, tableware, toys like dolls and puzzles, glass and wooden Christmas ornaments and soccer balls. The article gives no effective date for the cuts.⁸

Every figure above was read from its source on the day of filing and re-checked against that source by a separate fact-check before publication. Found an error? Tell the desk.