Suez container capacity tops half of pre‑crisis: 753,000 TEU a week

Market Context & Direct Impact

Suez container capacity has cleared half its pre-crisis level for the first time. BIMCO, citing Clarksons Research, puts average weekly container ship capacity through the canal at 753,000 TEU in the first two weeks of October 2026, against 1.46 million TEU in the same fortnight of 2023. Its share of container capacity moving via Suez or the Cape of Good Hope reached 36%, far above the 8% average of 2024 to mid-2026 but still short of the 80% recorded before the Red Sea attacks. Seatrade Maritime reports the same BIMCO work against pre-Iran war levels, so the baseline matters when readers compare headlines.

The return is real, but Freightos treats the Houthi escalation as uncertainty rather than a capacity cut. Xeneta says scheduled weekly capacity crossing Bab el-Mandeb in at least one direction reached 448,273 TEU for 5 October, double the figure six weeks earlier but still 48% of August 2023. Linerlytica expects a full-scale Suez return by the first quarter of 2027. Houthi missiles hit Aramco's headquarters, and carriers had been lifting Asia–Europe Red Sea transits since June, a trend a renewed campaign could reverse. Counter-fact: Asia–Europe spot rates have fallen steadily since July, and MSC's Suez Canal surcharge of $36 per TEU, extended through October, is already a live cost line for shippers.

Core Executive Takeaways

• Capacity is partialBIMCO's 753,000 TEU weekly average still sits roughly half of the 2023 level, so the Suez recovery remains partial.
• Blanking still happensXeneta counts 58,200 TEU blanked on Far East to US West Coast this week and reads it as carriers protecting rate levels.
• Port congestion slows reliefBIMCO warns that Asian port congestion could delay the full effect of the return on vessel availability.

Strategic Playbook

1. 1
   Confirm routing in writing

   Ask carriers and forwarders which Q4 services transit Suez and which still route via the Cape, then write routing change and blank-sailing notice terms into bookings.

2. 2
   Stress-test the 2027 tender

   Model a full Red Sea return and a renewed Houthi campaign side by side before accepting current Asia–Mediterranean rate levels in contract talks.

Filed 09:26 GMT, 19 October 2026, for the first edition of 19 Oct.
As agents only.

Sources

1. Suez Canal container ship transits exceed half of pre-crisis levelsContainer News, published 15 October 2026
2. Full Suez return for container carriers expected by Q1 2027Seatrade Maritime, published 14 October 2026
3. Houthi attacks add new geopolitical risk to softening container ratesFreightWaves, published 14 October 2026
4. Attacks disrupt Saudi air cargo; China-Europe air rates slump - October 13, 2026 UpdateFreightos, published 13 October 2026
5. Xeneta Weekly Ocean Container Shipping Market Update 16.10.26Xeneta, published 16 October 2026
6. Shippers stressing over risks from Suez Canal and Red Sea transitsThe Loadstar, published 12 October 2026

Claims ledger: 13 facts and where each comes from

• BIMCO, citing Clarksons Research, reports an average of 753,000 TEU of container ship capacity passing through the Suez Canal each week in the first two weeks of October 2026, versus 1.46 million TEU in the same period of 2023.¹
• 36% of container ship capacity moving via Suez or the Cape of Good Hope used the canal in the first two weeks of October 2026, against an 8% average from 2024 to mid-2026 and 80% before the Red Sea attacks.¹
• BIMCO reports box ship transits via the Red Sea and Suez Canal route at more than 50% of pre-Iran war levels.²
• Scheduled weekly capacity crossing Bab el-Mandeb in at least one direction was 448,273 TEU on 5 October 2026, still 48% of the 930,679 TEU offered in August 2023, and had doubled since 27 August 2026.⁵
• Linerlytica expects a full-scale return to the Suez route by the first quarter of 2027.²
• For container lines, the immediate effect of the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia is uncertainty rather than a confirmed capacity shock, according to Freightos.³
• Houthi missiles hit the headquarters of Saudi oil producer Aramco, Saudi Arabia confirmed.³
• Carriers had gradually increased Asia-Europe transits through the Red Sea since June, and a renewed wave of attacks could reverse that trend and support rates.³
• Asia-Mediterranean spot prices rose 7% to $3,800 per FEU in the latest week, per Freightos's weekly update.⁴
• Spot rates on Asia-Europe lanes have fallen steadily since July, driven mainly by the post-peak demand slowdown and carriers' gradual return to Red Sea routings.³
• MSC extended its Piracy Risk and Suez Canal surcharges through October, at $55 per TEU for piracy risk and $36 per TEU for the Suez Canal.⁶
• Xeneta reports 58,200 TEU blanked on the Far East to US West Coast trade in the week of 16 October, and says carriers appear to be protecting current rate levels rather than expecting growth.⁵
• Congestion at Asian ports could delay the full impact of the Suez capacity recovery on vessel availability, according to BIMCO.¹

Every figure above is tied to a cited source that was checked on the day of filing. Found an error? Tell the desk.