Asia‑US spot rates peak at USD 8,346/FEU West Coast, USD 11,523 East

Market Context & Direct Impact

Asia–U.S. container spot rates have likely topped out. Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand says spot rates from Asia to the United States have likely reached their post-Hormuz crisis peak. Market-average spot rates edged higher on 1 October to USD 8,346 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) for the U.S. West Coast and USD 11,523 per FEU for the East Coast. Those gains were small, at 1.4% and 0.7% from 24 September, yet they left rates more than four times their 28 February pre-crisis levels. Easing port congestion in Asia, as typhoon season winds down, is helping turn the market, and Golden Week holidays in China cut exports in early October.

The East Coast premium is where the correction is expected to bite. East Coast rates sat USD 3,177 per FEU above West Coast rates on 1 October, against a USD 772 gap before the crisis. Sand expects that gap to narrow because the East Coast starts from a higher base. For three months ahead he forecasts East Coast spot rates of USD 6,000 to 7,000 per FEU and West Coast rates of USD 4,500 to 5,500. He calls that a sizeable correction, but not a collapse, and warns that further geopolitical disruption could change the picture again.

Core Executive Takeaways

• Peak, not collapseXeneta expects elevated freight costs to persist through the rest of 2026, so budget for high ocean rates rather than quick relief.
• East Coast premium narrowsThe USD 3,177 per FEU gap over the West Coast is forecast to shrink, so East Coast lanes should see the steepest fall.
• Watch Asian congestionEasing port congestion in Asia drove the turn, which suggests renewed congestion there would test the forecast.

Strategic Playbook

1. 1
   Re-base Q4 ocean budgets

   Set Asia–U.S. ocean budgets near current spot levels for the rest of 2026, and treat Xeneta's three-month ranges as a downside case, not the base case.

2. 2
   Time East Coast bookings

   Defer non-urgent East Coast bookings until the spread narrows toward Xeneta's forecast, and keep West Coast capacity covered at current levels.

Filed 00:38 GMT, 12 October 2026, for the first edition of 12 Oct.
As agents only.

Sources

1. Xeneta: US-bound container rates peak, but sharp collapse unlikelyFreightWaves, published 6 October 2026
2. XENETA WEEKLY OCEAN CONTAINER SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - 02.10.26Xeneta, published 2 October 2026
3. Xeneta weekly ocean container shipping market update October 2, 2026AJOT, published 2 October 2026
4. Xeneta weekly ocean container shipping market update September 18, 2026AJOT, published 18 September 2026

Claims ledger: 10 facts and where each comes from

• Market-average spot rates edged higher Oct. 1, reaching $8,346 per forty-foot equivalent unit to the U.S. West Coast and $11,523 per FEU to the East Coast.¹
• Those increases of 1.4% and 0.7%, respectively, from Sept. 24 left rates more than four times their Feb. 28 pre-crisis levels.¹
• Xeneta's Chief Analyst Peter Sand said spot rates from Far East to the US have reached the market's post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026, with the caveat that the market will not collapse.²
• Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse, so shippers should expect to pay elevated freight costs for the remainder of the year, per Peter Sand.²
• The spread between the US West Coast and East Coast trades is USD 3,177 per FEU, compared to around USD 772 pre-Hormuz crisis, with US East Coast the more expensive.²
• Rolling forward three months, Xeneta's Sand said spot rates into the US East Coast could be in the range of USD 6,000-7,000 and West Coast around USD 4,500-5,500 (a forecast).²
• Sand described the possible decline as a sizeable correction, but not a collapse, and said major disruptions or geopolitical conflict could change the situation again.²
• Far East to US West Coast spot rates rose +1.4% (USD +115 per FEU) in the week since 24 Sep 2026, and the US East-West Coast spread stood at USD 3,177 per FEU on 1 Oct 2026.³
• Easing port congestion in Asia as typhoon season winds down is helping turn the market, and China's Golden Week and national holidays reduced exports in the first week of October, per Xeneta.¹
• As of 18 September 2026, Far East to US West Coast spot rates were USD 7,960 per FEU versus the all-time high of USD 9,699 per FEU set on 1 February 2022, 17.9% short of peak.⁴

Every figure above is tied to a cited source that was checked on the day of filing. Found an error? Tell the desk.