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Truckload rejections near 14% as for-hire tractors drop about 51,000

2026-10-10T04:45:00.000Z

SONAR's truckload rejection index held near 14% as for-hire tractor counts fell about 51,000 in August, FreightWaves reports; DAT's van ratio hit 13.7.

Market Context & Direct Impact

FreightWaves pins truckload tightness on supply, not demand. Its Oct. 7 SONAR analysis says the market is tight "because trucks are leaving, not because freight is surging." The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index, the rate at which carriers reject shippers' electronic load tenders, held near 14%. That is about three times the 4% to 6% range of 2023 through 2025. Over the three years ending October 2026, FreightWaves puts the rejection index up 268% and its truckload volume index up 9%; at their early-summer 2026 peak, rejections were up more than 350%. FreightWaves says total for-hire tractors fell about 51,000 in August alone. SONAR data show tractors in new for-hire fleets dropped to 19,520 that month; FreightWaves puts the mid-2022 peak at about 47,000.

DAT's load boards tightened as the quarter closed. DAT reports equipment posts fell 8% to 170,691 for Sept. 27–Oct. 3. The dry van load-to-truck ratio, posted loads per posted truck, reached 13.7, up from 7.67 a year ago. Reefer stood at 21.7 and flatbed at 44.1. DAT calls that pattern "the signature of a quarter-end push," which suggests part of the jump is calendar-driven.

Core Executive Takeaways

Authority Counts Mislead: Net authority additions topped 2,000 a week in late August and late September, a five-year high, yet FreightWaves calls the jump largely administrative and estimates new grants ran about 17% below the first quarter.
Enforcement Sidelines Drivers: FreightWaves reports 202,345 CDL and permit holders in prohibited status in FMCSA's Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse as of Jan. 2, 2026, and says English-proficiency enforcement takes about 2,700 drivers out of service a month.
Tight Into 2027: FreightWaves expects the truckload market to stay tight through early 2027 and names parked trucks as the fastest relief, citing an ATRI finding that about 10% of carriers' trucks sat without a driver in 2025.

Strategic Playbook

Shore up the routing guide: Rank lanes by tender-rejection exposure and offer incumbent carriers volume commitments, drop-trailer flexibility or faster payment in exchange for acceptance guarantees before peak-season freight builds.
Track trucks, not authorities: Budget for elevated spot exposure into early 2027, and treat rising for-hire tractor counts and seated drivers, not new-authority totals, as the signal that capacity is returning.

Sources: FreightWaves, FreightWaves, American Journal of Transportation, DAT Freight & Analytics, FreightWaves.

XPO beats productivity target with nearly 2.5-point gain, cites AI

2026-10-10T04:35:00.000Z

XPO said workforce planning technology improved productivity nearly 2.5 points year over year in Q2 2026, above a 1.5% target; its CEO separately credited new AI capabilities for labor productivity.

Market Context & Direct Impact

XPO made two separate productivity statements on July 30, 2026. In its Q2 earnings release, CEO Mario Harik said XPO "continued to improve labor productivity above target by implementing new AI capabilities across the network," and gave no figure. On the earnings call the same day, Harik said workforce planning technology improved productivity by nearly 2.5 points versus last year, above a quarterly target of 1.5%; that sentence did not mention AI. In April he described a proprietary workforce planning model that flexes labor hours as demand changes. The Q2 gain is smaller than the first quarter's: on the April 30, 2026 call Harik reported a productivity improvement of 4% against a long-term target of 1.5%.

XPO's North American less-than-truckload (LTL) adjusted operating ratio (operating cost as a share of revenue) improved 300 basis points year over year to a record 79.9% in Q2, per the release. The release lists productivity improvements as one of four drivers of higher LTL adjusted EBITDA, alongside yield growth, higher tonnage per day and higher fuel surcharge revenue. Yield excluding fuel, revenue per hundredweight before fuel surcharges, still rose 4.4% year over year. Separately, on the Q1 call, Chief Strategy Officer Ali Faghri put each point of productivity at "somewhere in that $25 million to $30 million of incremental EBITDA" and stated no time period.

Core Executive Takeaways

Route Optimization Reach: Harik said on the Q2 call that more than two-thirds of XPO's operations use its route optimization technology for pickup and delivery, compared with about half the network in April, with fewer miles and more stops per hour that he did not quantify.
Trailer Loading Pilot: Harik said an AI application that assesses images of freight inside trailers improved load quality by more than 40% and reduced damages by 50% at pilot sites in Q2, and that XPO expects to roll it out network-wide through the back half of the year.
Linehaul Miles Cut: FreightWaves reported in July 2025 that an AI-enabled model let XPO reduce linehaul miles by 3%, empty miles by 10% and freight diversions by more than 80%.

Strategic Playbook

Bid on service data: Ask every LTL carrier in the next bid for its damage claims ratio and compare it with the below-0.2% ratio XPO cited in its Q2 release, because XPO's results suggest a carrier can raise productivity while its yield still rises.
Measure before buying: Fleets and 3PLs that run their own docks or pickup-and-delivery routes should baseline labor hours per shipment, route miles and stops per hour, then pilot labor planning, route optimization or image-based load checks at a few sites and scale only what moves those numbers.

Sources: XPO, Inc. (filed on SEC EDGAR), XPO, Inc. investor relations (transcript produced by FactSet CallStreet), XPO, Inc. investor relations (transcript produced by FactSet CallStreet), FreightWaves, FreightWaves.

U.S. imports from Mexico hit $60.64B in August; USMCA entry decides 10% duty

2026-10-10T04:35:00.000Z

U.S. imports from Mexico reached $60.64 billion in August, while the size of the tariff edge over China sourcing depends on USMCA entry claims and a duty now in court.

Market Context & Direct Impact

Mexico was the top U.S. trading partner in August. Imports from Mexico reached $60.64 billion, FreightWaves reports from U.S. Census Bureau data, which the Census country table confirms. FreightWaves puts two-way trade at $94.29 billion for the month, up nearly 27% year over year, and at $682.82 billion through eight months of 2026. China ranked third at $257.43 billion year to date, down 12% from the same period of 2025.

The Section 301 duty turns on how a Mexican good is entered. A USTR notice (91 FR 47318) imposes additional forced-labor duties from July 24, 2026: 10 percent on products of Mexico, 12.5 percent on products of China, and 10 percent on India, Indonesia and Malaysia. CBP guidance (CSMS 69326983) exempts products of Mexico entered free of duty under the USMCA; Holland & Knight describes those as goods that comply with the rules of origin and properly claim the preference. Goods subject to Section 232 fall outside this duty but stay under sectoral tariffs the firm puts at 25 to 50 percent. Three items are open: a Court of International Trade panel heard challenges to the duty on September 30, Quartz reports; USTR's separate excess-capacity investigations name Mexico; and Mexico is still negotiating Section 232 reductions, per Mexico News Daily.

Core Executive Takeaways

Compliance Is The Gate: The Dallas Fed reports the share of U.S. imports from Mexico and Canada qualifying for duty-free USMCA treatment rose to about 80 percent by July 2025, from roughly 50 percent for goods from Mexico and below 40 percent for Canada, and flags certification and documentation costs.
Reviews Turn Annual: USTR states the United States did not agree at the July 1, 2026 joint review to extend the USMCA for a new 16-year term, so annual joint reviews follow and the agreement terminates on July 1, 2036 unless all three parties confirm an extension.
China Cuts Remain Proposed: The Associated Press reports Washington and Beijing released reciprocal lists on September 28 of products worth about $30 billion each for tariff cuts that Al Jazeera describes as recommended, with 77 categories of Chinese goods covered and no effective date given.

Strategic Playbook

Qualify before relocating: Test each Mexico-sourced SKU against USMCA rules of origin and model landed cost three ways: entered duty-free under USMCA, at the additional 10 percent on top of the ordinary duty if origin or the claim fails, and under Section 232 sectoral tariffs if covered. Then load the China side with the 12.5 percent forced-labor rate, the 2018 Section 301 tariffs that an October 7 USTR notice keeps in effect, where they apply, ocean lead time and safety stock.
Hedge the open items: File comments with USTR by January 12, 2027, write tariff-change clauses into Mexican supply contracts, and keep a qualified China supplier for SKUs on the proposed tariff-cut lists while the court case and the U.S.-China talks remain unresolved.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, FreightWaves, Office of the United States Trade Representative, Federal Register, Steptoe LLP, Office of the United States Trade Representative, Federal Register, Office of the United States Trade Representative, Federal Register, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, PBS News (Associated Press report), U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Holland & Knight, Quartz, Office of the United States Trade Representative, Federal Register, Mexico News Daily, Al Jazeera.

Diesel falls to $6.199: surcharges set to ease, EIA sees $6+ October

2026-10-10T04:35:00.000Z

U.S. on-highway diesel fell 18.3 cents to $6.199 a gallon in the week of Oct. 5, per the EIA, and index-linked fuel surcharges are set to reset lower.

Market Context & Direct Impact

Diesel is retreating from its September high. The EIA's national on-highway average fell 18.3 cents to $6.199 a gallon for the week of Oct. 5, the second straight weekly drop. That is about 33 cents below the $6.529 posted for the week of Sept. 21, which DAT's weekly report calls the highest weekly reading in records going back to 2007. The EIA average still sits $2.488 above a year ago. Supply Chain 24/7 attributes the run-up to renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.

Truckload fuel surcharges lag the pump. DAT's van spot rate averaged $3.13 a mile for Sept. 27–Oct. 3 with fuel, against a $2.25 linehaul rate. The gap of about 88 cents is the implied fuel surcharge, and DAT calculated its surcharge on the $6.529 reading. DAT says its next weekly report will reflect the $6.382 average for the week of Sept. 28. DAT's 35-day forecast holds van linehaul near $2.24 a mile, which suggests near-term relief will come through the surcharge line, not the base rate.

Core Executive Takeaways

Regional Gaps Persist: EIA data put California at $8.082 and the Lower Atlantic at $5.699, while New England slipped just 3.4 cents to $6.476.
East Coast Supply Tight: The EIA reports East Coast distillate inventories ran 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September and forecasts a 20% to 30% deficit through the upcoming winter.
Forecast Stays Elevated: The EIA's Oct. 6 outlook forecasts retail distillate prices above $6 a gallon in October, a gradual decline after that, and retail diesel averaging about $4.50 a gallon in 2027.

Strategic Playbook

Audit the index week: Match each carrier's fuel surcharge to the EIA week its contract names, and confirm the Oct. 5 average reaches invoices on the agreed lag, with no Sept. 21 pricing left in the tables.
Budget for a slow decline: Hold October fuel accruals at diesel above $6, per the EIA forecast, and keep fuel on an indexed surcharge schedule in upcoming bids so the decline the EIA expects flows through to cost instead of staying locked inside linehaul.

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Supply Chain 24/7, American Journal of Transportation, DAT Freight & Analytics, U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Freight Scope 3: revised EU ESRS take effect 10 November, apply from 2027

2026-10-10T06:15:00.000Z

Revised EU ESRS take effect 10 November 2026, applying from 2027; from 2 December 2030, service-level emissions disclosed for EU transport must use ISO 14083.

Market Context & Direct Impact

The EU's revised sustainability reporting standards (ESRS) take effect 10 November 2026. Delegated Regulation (EU) 2026/1563 applies to financial years beginning on or after 1 January 2027; undertakings may opt in for 2026. Directive (EU) 2026/470, in force since 18 March 2026 and due for transposition by 19 March 2027, limits mandatory EU reporting to undertakings above €450 million net turnover and 1,000 employees on average. From financial years starting in 2027, value-chain undertakings averaging up to 1,000 employees, inside or outside the EU, may decline CSRD data requests beyond the datapoints of Delegated Regulation (EU) 2026/1560; per Linklaters, the cap does not limit data other EU or national law requires.

CountEmissionsEU governs service-level data. Regulation (EU) 2026/1030 applies from 2 December 2030 to disaggregated emissions of transport services starting or ending in the EU, only where calculated and disclosed by contract, voluntarily or under another law. Aggregated totals, such as CSRD Scope 3 figures, fall outside it. The method is EN ISO 14083:2023, as updated and specified in the regulation. Transport operators, hub operators and data intermediaries calculating these emissions, except small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), need verification by a conformity assessment body; SMEs may opt in.

Core Executive Takeaways

California Leaves Freight Optional: The U.S. state of California's SB 253 requires Scope 3 reporting from 2027, but a California Air Resources Board (CARB) staff proposal would require only Categories 1, 3, 5, 6 and 7, leaving transportation (Categories 4 and 9) voluntary; first Scope 1 and 2 reports are due 10 November 2026 if the Office of Administrative Law approves CARB's rule, with first-cycle enforcement discretion: assurance is optional, and entities not collecting data when CARB issued its enforcement notice need not report; a U.S. Chamber of Commerce challenge is pending, though SB 253 is not enjoined.
GHG Protocol Weighs Tightening: Its July 2026 plan weighs mandatory last-mile, backhaul and returns emissions in Categories 4 and 9, with the revised standard estimated for Q4 2028.
IMO Still Divided: The IMO Net-Zero Framework is unadopted after a September session ended "largely divided," per The Maritime Executive; the working group meets again 23–27 November, and the extraordinary session on adoption is set to resume 4 December 2026, subject to confirmation by MEPC 85.

Strategic Playbook

Standardize on ISO 14083: Request ISO 14083 shipment-level emissions from carriers; note that, for CSRD purposes, providers averaging up to 1,000 employees may decline anything beyond the voluntary standard.
Plan for 2030 verification: If you are a non-SME carrier, hub operator or data intermediary that calculates and discloses EU transport-service emissions, budget for third-party verification that applies from 2 December 2030.

Sources: EUR-Lex, Official Journal of the European Union, EUR-Lex, Official Journal of the European Union, EUR-Lex, Official Journal of the European Union, ALICE, European Technology Platform for logistics, International Organization for Standardization (ISO), California Air Resources Board (CARB), California Air Resources Board (CARB), Greenhouse Gas Protocol, International Maritime Organization (IMO), The Maritime Executive, Ropes & Gray, Linklaters, Mayer Brown, Baker Tilly.

Hormuz attacks hit wartime weekly high, sources say; Maersk keeps USD 1,000 fee

2026-10-10T06:15:00.000Z

Security sources told Reuters Hormuz tanker attacks hit a wartime weekly high; Maersk still charges the USD 1,000 per container strait fee set in July.

Market Context & Direct Impact

Attacks hit a wartime weekly high, sources say. Three maritime security sources told Reuters on 7 October of at least 12 tanker attacks around Hormuz from 28 September to 5 October, the most in any week, the sources said, since the U.S. war with Iran began on 28 February. Counts differ: IMO data cited by Reuters showed nine incidents that week; Lloyd's List Intelligence counts at least 13 attacks on tankers or gas carriers since 28 September. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), which Reuters describes as U.S. Navy-led, kept the strait at SEVERE on 4 October, citing recent Iranian attacks.

Container cargo carries the cost. Maersk first announced its USD 1,000 per container strait fee in Middle East Operational Update 40 on 22 July. Update 51 of 8 October keeps it, without an effective or end date, on top of the Emergency Freight rate, replacing separately charged Landbridge costs. That rate, for listed ports from Iraq to Oman (bar Salalah), is USD 1,800 per 20-foot dry container and USD 3,000 per 40-foot. On Middle East imports Maersk invoices the USD 1,000 fee to the local consignee.

Core Executive Takeaways

Bookings Stay Restricted: Maersk suspends dry bookings to and from Iraq, Saudi Arabia's Dammam and Al Jubail, and the UAE except Khor Fakkan and Jebel Ali.
Khor Fakkan Congested: Maersk reports congestion and extended truck waits at Khor Fakkan, on the UAE's Gulf of Oman coast; containers move to ICD Sajja and some bookings to Jebel Ali.
Insurance Cover Thins: Maersk says a number of insurers have reduced or withdrawn cover for Red Sea, Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf shipments, though Maersk Cargo Insurance still offers cover per policy terms.

Strategic Playbook

Re-quote every Gulf order: Add the strait fee and, for listed ports, the emergency rate to landed cost, net of the Landbridge charges replaced, and agree in writing who pays.
Decide the fallback before loading: Storage in transit is covered for 14 days, then costs USD 25 per TEU per day. Rerouting or returning before the container reaches the region avoids the emergency charge but not the standard change-of-destination fee and extra freight; within 72 hours of planned discharge, the charge applies. Confirm war-risk cover for the actual routing.

Sources: Joint Maritime Information Center (published by UKMTO), Reuters (republished by Baird Maritime), A.P. Moller - Maersk, Lloyd's List Intelligence, A.P. Moller - Maersk, Seatrade Maritime News, Reuters (republished by The Star).

EU €2-per-item e-commerce handling fee expected from 1 November

2026-10-10T06:15:00.000Z

The EU's €2-per-item handling fee on distance-sale imports is expected to apply from 1 November 2026, and the customs declarant owes it.

Market Context & Direct Impact

A Commission delegated act, still under scrutiny, sets the EU's Union handling fee at €2 per item. Commission guidance of 5 October 2026 says it "is therefore expected to apply from 1 November 2026"; Irish Revenue gives the date without qualification. It rests on the new Union Customs Code, Regulation (EU) 2026/2108, published 19 September 2026. It covers distance sales, goods dispatched from outside the EU to a non-taxable customer such as a private individual. It comes on top of the temporary €3 per-item duty on consignments up to €150, in force since 1 July 2026.

The declarant owes the fee. Until 30 June 2028 that is the user of the Import One Stop Shop (IOSS) VAT scheme or of the VAT special arrangements, under which postal operators and carriers collect the tax, or their indirect representative; otherwise the importer's indirect representative, the guidance states. Residually, in the few member states offering a free web-based declaration system and only where IOSS was not used, a consumer can declare, becoming the debtor; recital 80 of Regulation (EU) 2026/2108 says the consumer should not be a debtor. The guidance adds that the fee forms part of the import VAT base under the special arrangements and the standard procedure; under IOSS it is not taxed at import but enters the IOSS VAT return if charged to the buyer. From the date the fee applies, declarants must enter TARIC document code Y126 in the declaration, which triggers it automatically. The guidance is not legally binding.

Core Executive Takeaways

No Value Ceiling: Unlike the €3 duty, which runs until 1 July 2028, the handling fee is not time-limited and also covers goods in consignments above €150 if sold in a distance sale, the guidance states.
Declaration Lines Multiply: In the Commission's example, a €140 consignment of three different garments pays one fee on an H7 or H6 declaration and three on an H1, since the fee applies per declaration line irrespective of quantity.
Liège Reports Losses: Frederic Brun, vice president of sales and marketing at Belgium's Liège Airport, told The Loadstar on 14 September that the airport lost about 27% of its Asian cargo, some 10% of overall volumes, over an unstated period amid fee changes that preceded the €2 fee, adding the €3 charge's effect is hard to separate from seasonal weakness.

Strategic Playbook

Name the debtor now: Non-EU sellers and platforms should confirm who lodges each declaration and bears the €2; declarants should load code Y126 and reprice clearance.
Cut lines, plan for slippage: Check which declaration type each flow qualifies for, since line count sets the bill and preference claims need H1, price the non-refundable fee into returns, and treat 1 November as expected until the delegated act clears scrutiny and appears in the Official Journal.

Sources: European Commission, Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, EUR-Lex, Official Journal of the European Union, Revenue (Irish Tax and Customs), European Commission, The Loadstar, European Commission, Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Council of the European Union.